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Board Index » Archive » Ashes 2010/11 (General)


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Crouchy
Post subject: Probability stats on Ashes
PostPosted: 15:37 on 17th Dec 2010

Joined: 12:13 on 27th Apr 2008
Posts: 2406
Location: London
http://cricketwpa.blogspot.com/

Has some interesting probability stats on the current Ashes - who is doing the most to help win/lose matches for their team. Their formula hasn't been published so far, but the reports seem fairly accurate... and rather interesting.
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Maidenover
Post subject: Re: Probability stats on Ashes
PostPosted: 16:33 on 17th Dec 2010

Joined: 09:13 on 23rd Apr 2008
Posts: 2913
very deep :o
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whiteensign
Post subject: Re: Probability stats on Ashes
PostPosted: 07:17 on 19th Dec 2010

Joined: 22:13 on 23rd Apr 2008
Posts: 1267
Location: Redditch/Sydney
Probably got some mad (Duckworth Lewis style) formula to work it out, when in reality all anyone needs to do is look at the scorecard. It doesn't take a genius to see who's performed and who hasn't!!!
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Sjcstavros
Post subject: Re: Probability stats on Ashes
PostPosted: 12:15 on 13th Jan 2011

Joined: 11:38 on 13th Jan 2011
Posts: 1
Hi guys,

Just joined and looking over old posts and found this- [url]cricketwpa.blogspot.com[/url] is actually a blog that a mate and I set up and run!

We've just posted a series summary- the stats are kind to Ally and Jimmy's awesomeness and highlight ricky's blues and if you click on the Ashes 2010/11 tab the game by game WPA graphs are side by side (so we can reminisce easily) and there are links to match stats...

We haven't had time to go into detail about how the model works but there's a little bit of blurb under the 'what is wpa?' and 'what do we mean by win probability?' tabs (it's not like betting odds) which is important to read... Admittedly, I was out in Oz watching cricket while my mate was slaving with the stats and holding down his day job so if anyone's interested I owe it to him to discuss the finer workings of the maths... Clearly the model's still not perfect but it's getting there!

Long live our touring champions, and their barmy army (haven't seen england abroad since I was a kid and this winter was the most amazing experience)!

Ps white ensign- you're right! We do know who's played well in significant periods of the game, all we're saying is that it's nice to graph and quantify it in terms of 'wins'... Hopefully if we ever can make a large database of this stuff we can measure who's made the most wins for their team (some runs are more valuable than others, same for wickets, and sometimes a wicket may be worth lots of runs and sometimes less, so career 'runs/wickets' tallies can mask how a player has fared in the key match moments)... We hope it can supplement base stats as well as our memories!
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Crouchy
Post subject: Re: Probability stats on Ashes
PostPosted: 00:19 on 14th Jan 2011

Joined: 12:13 on 27th Apr 2008
Posts: 2406
Location: London
Hello, thanks for that... a very interesting blog, particularly in light of Andy Flower being a fan of sabermetrics and Moneyball.
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