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Hector
Post subject: Quarter final place?
PostPosted: 10:55 on 12th Mar 2011

Joined: 19:34 on 29th May 2008
Posts: 1229
Location: Somerset
Are we definately through if we beat the Windies?

I get the feeling there might be some unlikely series of results that would leave us missing out due to run rate
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DavidC
Post subject: Re: Quarter final place?
PostPosted: 12:21 on 12th Mar 2011

Joined: 21:08 on 9th Feb 2011
Posts: 80
After defeats to Ireland & Bangladesh we don't really deserve a qf place.
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Richhufc
Post subject: Re: Quarter final place?
PostPosted: 14:39 on 12th Mar 2011

Joined: 20:35 on 14th May 2008
Posts: 774
Location: Hereford
DavidC Wrote:
After defeats to Ireland & Bangladesh we don't really deserve a qf place.


Or after a tie against the hosts and a win snatched from the jaws of defeat against one of the favourites, we do deserve to through?

Half full.
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darrensmale
Post subject: Re: Quarter final place?
PostPosted: 16:00 on 12th Mar 2011

Joined: 09:05 on 16th Jul 2008
Posts: 155
Richhufc Wrote:
DavidC Wrote:
After defeats to Ireland & Bangladesh we don't really deserve a qf place.


Or after a tie against the hosts and a win snatched from the jaws of defeat against one of the favourites, we do deserve to through?

Half full.


Quite right Rich. The task is to first get out of the group. Everyone seems to be able to beat each other.

Definately half full.
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Airliebird9
Post subject: Re: Quarter final place?
PostPosted: 16:47 on 12th Mar 2011

Joined: 02:04 on 24th Apr 2008
Posts: 970
Location: East Yorkshire
We have shown we are definately capable of beating anybody on our day. It's just our day comes round as often as meeting an intelligent Australian :D
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freethegerryone
Post subject: Re: Quarter final place?
PostPosted: 08:17 on 13th Mar 2011

Joined: 14:18 on 8th Dec 2008
Posts: 18
Hector Wrote:
Are we definately through if we beat the Windies?

I get the feeling there might be some unlikely series of results that would leave us missing out due to run rate


I tried to work it out with tie and no results, but it was too complicated. So assuming no ties or no results in the remaining matches, it goes like this (as far as I can see):

1. NED bt BAN and IRE bt SAF and NED bt IRE and SAF bt BAN. We don't even need to win.
2. NED bt BAN or IRE bt SAF or SAF bt BAN or IND bt WIN. We just need to win.
3. BAN bt NED and SAF bt IRE and BAN bt SAF and WIN bt IND. If we win it will come down to run rate between England and India for 4th and 5th place in the group.

Interesting!
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Crouchy
Post subject: Re: Quarter final place?
PostPosted: 10:10 on 13th Mar 2011

Joined: 12:13 on 27th Apr 2008
Posts: 2406
Location: London
England will go through
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whiteensign
Post subject: Re: Quarter final place?
PostPosted: 22:51 on 13th Mar 2011

Joined: 22:13 on 23rd Apr 2008
Posts: 1268
Location: Redditch/Sydney
freethegerryone Wrote:
Hector Wrote:
Are we definately through if we beat the Windies?

I get the feeling there might be some unlikely series of results that would leave us missing out due to run rate


I tried to work it out with tie and no results, but it was too complicated. So assuming no ties or no results in the remaining matches, it goes like this (as far as I can see):

1. NED bt BAN and IRE bt SAF and NED bt IRE and SAF bt BAN. We don't even need to win.
2. NED bt BAN or IRE bt SAF or SAF bt BAN or IND bt WIN. We just need to win.
3. BAN bt NED and SAF bt IRE and BAN bt SAF and WIN bt IND. If we win it will come down to run rate between England and India for 4th and 5th place in the group.

Interesting!


What about the more likely scenario of;
Bangladesh beating Netherlands
South Africa beating Ireland
Ireland beating Netherlands
South Africa beating Bangladesh
India beating West Indies

This would mean that if England beat West Indies they will go through with 7 points in 3rd place, if it's another tie England will be on 6 points with Bangladesh and will come down to net run rate or whatever they use to determine, lose to the West Indies and England are out with only 5 points in 5th spot!!! Any more shocks and England could well be out.
Basically, beat the West Indies and we're ok ;) If we don't, we've only won 2 out of the 6 games and don't deserve to go through!!!!
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LCCC
Post subject: Re: Quarter final place?
PostPosted: 06:25 on 14th Mar 2011

Joined: 00:09 on 30th Nov 2010
Posts: 35
England eh? Bloody hell! I suppose it depends on which England team turns up. If it's the team that beat the Saffers and had a draw against India i'd back them to win the World Cup. If it's the 'other' side, well..........plane home but i am optimistic as until recently, it was unheard of what we did to the Aussies in their own backyard in the Ashes.

Get to the knock out stage and anything is possible. I seem to remember us struggling in the 20/20 World Cup initially so there is a precedence! :D
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freethegerryone
Post subject: Re: Quarter final place?
PostPosted: 06:17 on 14th Mar 2011

Joined: 14:18 on 8th Dec 2008
Posts: 18
Quote:
What about the more likely scenario of;
...


Is covered in (2). Any single one of those results will do regardless of the other results (if there are no ties or no results).

...and by the time the second innings comes around on Thursday we'll know how quickly we need to score or how much to limit their score to to get our run rate ahead of India. If we do that we're through. India v West Indies is a straight winner qualifys, loser goes home (or stays home) match.

If it comes to the last match and India don't need to win to qualify (ie. just needing a close result to maintain NRR), I think they'll go out. Dhoni will go defensive early and they'll choke. They had the matches against us and South Africa in the bag in the final two overs and failed to finish them off!

West Indies could stitch us up if they're chasing, but I still think they'd rather us through than India.
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