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samcrewe
Post subject: Re: First Test Victory: The Verdicts Thread :)
PostPosted: 21:39 on 16th Jul 2013

Joined: 20:35 on 23rd Apr 2008
Posts: 657
Given Finn is not much of a swinger of the ball and Bresnan is AND their batsmen seem to shit themselves when playing the swinging ball, I would be going Bresnan all the way


...plus Finn sealed his own fate in those two awful spells v Haddin and Agar
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bishbash
Post subject: Re: First Test Victory: The Verdicts Thread :)
PostPosted: 11:47 on 17th Jul 2013

Joined: 12:03 on 4th Jul 2011
Posts: 517
peado Wrote:
bishbash Wrote:
We should win at Lords and 5-0 is still well on.

Have you been drinking. 5-0 forget it.


I think it is only about 10s to lay on Betfair. Can get around 10% on your money in just over a month if you really are so sure.
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peado
Post subject: Re: First Test Victory: The Verdicts Thread :)
PostPosted: 20:17 on 17th Jul 2013

Joined: 09:29 on 23rd Apr 2008
Posts: 812
bishbash Wrote:
peado Wrote:
bishbash Wrote:
We should win at Lords and 5-0 is still well on.

Have you been drinking. 5-0 forget it.


I think it is only about 10s to lay on Betfair. Can get around 10% on your money in just over a month if you really are so sure.

I am not a gambling man, but I think what you are saying is that the odds against England winning 5-0 are 10 to 1. Doesn't seem very generous to me, on the basis that England came within a smidge of losing the first test.
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samcrewe
Post subject: Re: First Test Victory: The Verdicts Thread :)
PostPosted: 00:53 on 18th Jul 2013

Joined: 20:35 on 23rd Apr 2008
Posts: 657
...and the weather being a possibility of making at least one test a draw
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bishbash
Post subject: Re: First Test Victory: The Verdicts Thread :)
PostPosted: 05:54 on 18th Jul 2013

Joined: 12:03 on 4th Jul 2011
Posts: 517
peado Wrote:
bishbash Wrote:
peado Wrote:
bishbash Wrote:
We should win at Lords and 5-0 is still well on.

Have you been drinking. 5-0 forget it.


I think it is only about 10s to lay on Betfair. Can get around 10% on your money in just over a month if you really are so sure.

I am not a gambling man, but I think what you are saying is that the odds against England winning 5-0 are 10 to 1. Doesn't seem very generous to me, on the basis that England came within a smidge of losing the first test.


"I dont bet" is a standard response from people that make outlandish statements that dont match the odds. Put your money where your mouth is mate. Ten percent on your money in five weeks ffs, take you four years with an ISA. I am not saying it will be 5-0, but the market doesnt lie. Any dodgy odds on the back of patriotic money is marginal imo. Let us just really simplify it....

England an even money bet in the first test and in this test. So 31/1 to do 5-0. Now we should be 15/1. If we win, as was my original statement, that makes us 7/1. Will we be even money throughout? We should shorten the more we win, so if we are 4-0 up then we might go off at 4/6 or shorter. I am happy to counter that with the fact we cannot be sure the weather will be so good all summer, but the draw is infamous for being too short in all tests, everywhere, and has been for ten years. 5-0 still on, not a prediction just a statement of fact. You re not exactly sticking your neck out tipping up a 1/10 shot, but it could happen and I think we are a better team. I am of that generation that grew up with england never winning the ashes for 18 years, never seriously looking like winning them. But I never stopped believing and am not about to start wussing out now just because we are 2/9 favourites.
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samcrewe
Post subject: Re: First Test Victory: The Verdicts Thread :)
PostPosted: 22:13 on 19th Jul 2013

Joined: 20:35 on 23rd Apr 2008
Posts: 657
...now we're relying too much on Swann

...or maybe the mediocrity of the Aussie batting lineup

Every test has its standout player, sometimes Jimmy just shines brighter and more regularly than others
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stonesfan
Post subject: Re: First Test Victory: The Verdicts Thread :)
PostPosted: 00:52 on 20th Jul 2013

Joined: 23:40 on 9th Feb 2013
Posts: 83
Lets bear a few things in mind here if we're gonna slate Finn. James Anderson struggled for the first 3 or 4 years of his international career. I seem to recall him being slated for being something of a show pony and only capable of producing if conditions were heavily in his favour. However, he's now matured into a bowler who will hopefully go down as a GREAT bowler of his generation. Up there with the likes of McGrath, Ambrose and Donald.

Stuart Broad started his test career in good style and was generally accepted as being part of the England team for years to come. In truth he hasn't quite lived up to the billing from both fans and media but still remains a formidable cricketer who when he gets its right, its very right.

Finn has had something of a stop start career. Promising in Australia before being dropped for conceding too many runs....despite being the highest wicket taker! He actually reminds me of a young Andy Caddick. Slightly suspect temperament when things aren't going his way and ineffective on slow pitches. I get the feeling he will end up having the same kind of test career as Caddick as he matures and will become a respected, useful, and hopefully prolific bowler. He's not been in particularly good form for Middlesex this season and probably needs to take a step back and work on his game.

By the way.....what on Earth happened to Tremlett?
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stonesfan
Post subject: Re: First Test Victory: The Verdicts Thread :)
PostPosted: 01:07 on 20th Jul 2013

Joined: 23:40 on 9th Feb 2013
Posts: 83
samcrewe Wrote:
...now we're relying too much on Swann

...or maybe the mediocrity of the Aussie batting lineup

Every test has its standout player, sometimes Jimmy just shines brighter and more regularly than others


Even most 'great' sides have relied on one or two bowlers doing the business for them in a series. I recall Australia being bailed out by McGrath and Warne time and time again when Lee and Gillespie were being dispatched all over the park as they were from time to time.

Its pretty rare for an entire team to perform at the top of their game over a series would you not agree? Probably one of the rare exceptions was the magnificent Windies side of the late 70s and 80s. They almost deliberately took it in turns to be brilliant throughout a series. When they all turned it on, well, they just ran through teams at will.
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samcrewe
Post subject: Re: First Test Victory: The Verdicts Thread :)
PostPosted: 03:09 on 20th Jul 2013

Joined: 20:35 on 23rd Apr 2008
Posts: 657
stonesfan Wrote:
samcrewe Wrote:
...now we're relying too much on Swann

...or maybe the mediocrity of the Aussie batting lineup

Every test has its standout player, sometimes Jimmy just shines brighter and more regularly than others


Even most 'great' sides have relied on one or two bowlers doing the business for them in a series. I recall Australia being bailed out by McGrath and Warne time and time again when Lee and Gillespie were being dispatched all over the park as they were from time to time.

Its pretty rare for an entire team to perform at the top of their game over a series would you not agree? Probably one of the rare exceptions was the magnificent Windies side of the late 70s and 80s. They almost deliberately took it in turns to be brilliant throughout a series. When they all turned it on, well, they just ran through teams at will.


I completely and utterly agree. I think a lot of people on here, as well as some of the media, didn't like how close that last test was and so for them it felt like a loss. It is engrained in British culture to be hard on oneself when things are going not so well, but equally we tend to get carried away when we are doing well (look at the national football team, one week we're gonna win the WC, the next they are treated as losers)

I've been thinking all week about this topic and I think the bowlers are taking way more flack than they deserve. The batsmen have got off very lightly. I mean, when was the last time we scored over 500 in an innings? Since the home win v India, our batting has been average at best and also, highly reliant on Cook. Both of our first innings so far in this series have been way below par and you could argue that it is bowlers who are picking up the slack by dismissing the opposition for even less that our mediocre totals.

The other thing that a lot of people need to remember about the below par performance at TB, was that Aus had a lot of decisions go their way in the first few days of the test, which really set them up for the rest of the match (Agar stumping, Root dismissal, Trott dismissal). All of those incidents did and could have totalled more than 150 runs difference. Agar was out on 6 and went on to make 98, who knows what Trott and Root could have made, but you wouldn't put it past them to have made an extra 50 runs between them. In the scheme of that test, lost runs could have made the test an absolute drubbing and no one would be even thinking about criticising the team.

I'm starting to think that this series will be similar to that of the 09 series, not in the score line, but in the series being highly entertaining, but lacking in top quality cricket at all levels.
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peado
Post subject: Re: First Test Victory: The Verdicts Thread :)
PostPosted: 06:37 on 20th Jul 2013

Joined: 09:29 on 23rd Apr 2008
Posts: 812
Samcrewe is right about this series not being full of top quality cricket. But for drama I've never known a test series like it. Who would have thought that at 28 for 3, England would have had the chance of making Australia follow on. Lord only knows what we are in for to-day.
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